President Donald Trump’s newest proposal — a $2,000 “tariff dividend” — has sparked one big question among Americans: When will the money actually arrive?

Trump has recently reiterated his promise to issue cash payments as a sort of reward for the years of high tariffs enacted under his administration, generating both excitement and confusion.

Trump suggested the dividend could hit bank accounts “by the middle of next year, a little bit later than that,” but offered few solid details.

“We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends,” Trump said this month, announcing that the payments would target “low, moderate and middle incomes.”

Who actually qualifies for the $2,000 payment?

In spite of the splashy headline figure, there’s still no official plan. No paperwork. No written rules. But one widely followed expert says the eligibility might be surprisingly simple.

Social Security analyst and YouTuber Blind to Billionaire believes income alone will decide who gets the money.

“It is based on your income – that’s it. I’ll make it very clear here, is your income below $75,000 a year, as an individual, yes or no? That’s it – that’s all you need to know. If your answer is yes, you are most likely eligible for this,” he explained.

He pointed to similar thresholds used for past government aid: “Generally, the threshold they put in place for income is $75,000 as an individual, $150,000 as a married couple.”

That means unemployed people or those with non-traditional income streams could still qualify, offering hope to millions. But there’s a big caveat — nothing is finalized yet.

The biggest hurdle: Congress and cold hard math

Even if the public likes the idea, the proposed $2,000 payments face major political and financial roadblocks.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently cast doubt on whether the plan is workable, telling Fox Business, “We will see,” and emphasizing that “we need legislation for that.”

Translation: Trump would need Congress to approve a spending package that could run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

So how much money are we talking about?

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects the price tag could reach $600 billion annually — far exceeding what the government currently brings in from tariffs.

Even with stricter limits, the cost is still enormous. Erica York of the Tax Foundation noted that sending the payments only to households making under $100,000 would still total around $300 billion.

Bessent suggested the eventual payout might not be a physical check at all. “Could come in lots of forms,” he noted, such as tax credits or benefits tied to Trump’s proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

For now, the so-called “tariff dividends” remain a theoretical reward, funded by tariff income that has so far brought in about $195.9 billion total — a fraction of what would be needed to issue the payments nationwide.

Trump, however, remains confident. Speaking aboard Air Force One, he reiterated: “It will be next year… The tariffs allow us to give a dividend. We’re going to do a dividend, and we’re also going to be reducing debt.”